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The Eurozone economy Figure 1: Exchange rate of the euro (€) to the British pound (£) Figure 2: Eurozone inflation rate as measured by the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) Extract A European Central Bank disappoints markets with weaker than expected stimulus Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), surprised financial markets in November 2015 with a less ambitious package of monetary stimulus than many had anticipated - Edexcel - A-Level Economics A - Question 6 - 2017 - Paper 2

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The-Eurozone-economy----Figure-1:-Exchange-rate-of-the-euro-(€)-to-the-British-pound-(£)----Figure-2:-Eurozone-inflation-rate-as-measured-by-the-Consumer-Prices-Index-(CPI)----Extract-A----European-Central-Bank-disappoints-markets-with-weaker-than-expected-stimulus----Mario-Draghi,-president-of-the-European-Central-Bank-(ECB),-surprised-financial-markets-in-November-2015-with-a-less-ambitious-package-of-monetary-stimulus-than-many-had-anticipated-Edexcel-A-Level Economics A-Question 6-2017-Paper 2.png

The Eurozone economy Figure 1: Exchange rate of the euro (€) to the British pound (£) Figure 2: Eurozone inflation rate as measured by the Consumer Prices Inde... show full transcript

Worked Solution & Example Answer:The Eurozone economy Figure 1: Exchange rate of the euro (€) to the British pound (£) Figure 2: Eurozone inflation rate as measured by the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) Extract A European Central Bank disappoints markets with weaker than expected stimulus Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), surprised financial markets in November 2015 with a less ambitious package of monetary stimulus than many had anticipated - Edexcel - A-Level Economics A - Question 6 - 2017 - Paper 2

Step 1

Calculate the percentage change in the value of the euro in pounds from the start of 2009 to the end of 2015.

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Answer

To calculate the percentage change, we can use the formula:

ext{Percentage Change} = rac{( ext{Final Value} - ext{Initial Value})}{ ext{Initial Value}} imes 100

From the figure, the value of one euro at the start of 2009 is approximately £0.80 and at the end of 2015, it's about £0.70. Thus,

  1. Initial Value (2009) = £0.80
  2. Final Value (2015) = £0.70

Substituting these values into the formula gives:

ext{Percentage Change} = rac{(0.70 - 0.80)}{0.80} imes 100 = -12.5\\

Therefore, the value of the euro in pounds decreased by 12.5% from 2009 to 2015.

Step 2

Identify two factors which explain the change in the rate of Eurozone inflation as shown in Figure 2.

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Answer

  1. Decrease in Aggregate Demand: The low inflation rates observed can be attributed to a decline in consumer and business confidence, leading to reduced spending and investment, thus decreasing overall demand in the Eurozone.

  2. Eurozone Monetary Policy: The ECB's measures, such as lowering interest rates and introducing quantitative easing, aimed at stimulating the economy may not have effectively raised inflation due to the pre-existing economic conditions and a stagnant recovery.

Step 3

Assess the likely impact of an appreciation of the euro on the current account of the balance of payments for Eurozone countries.

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Answer

An appreciation of the euro can have several impacts on the current account:

  1. Exports Become More Expensive:
    As the euro appreciates, goods and services priced in euros become more expensive for foreign buyers, likely leading to a decrease in exports. This could negatively affect the current account balance as export revenues fall.

  2. Imports Become Cheaper:
    Conversely, a stronger euro makes imports cheaper, encouraging higher import volumes. This might increase the current account deficit since more money would flow out of the Eurozone for foreign goods and services.

Step 4

Discuss the likely success of the ECB's quantitative easing programme in moving Eurozone inflation closer to their target.

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Answer

The success of the ECB's quantitative easing (QE) program hinges on various factors:

  1. Effectiveness of QE:
    QE aims to lower interest rates and increase money supply, theoretically promoting lending and investment. If the financial markets respond positively, it can lead to increased consumer spending, pushing inflation closer to the target of 2%.

  2. External Factors:
    However, external factors such as global economic conditions, low commodity prices, and compliance from member states in implementing fiscal measures can undermine the effectiveness of QE. For instance, if economic sentiment remains weak, even substantial liquidity may not spur significant inflation.

  3. Adaptive Measures:
    Continuous assessment and adaptation of the QE measures, as indicated by the ECB's plans to extend and adjust the program, suggest a proactive approach. Nevertheless, if accompanied by a lack of structural reforms within member states, its overall impact could be limited.

Step 5

Discuss 'looser fiscal policy' and 'supply-side reforms' that may be used by governments of Eurozone countries to increase economic growth.

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Answer

  1. Looser Fiscal Policy:
    Governments may increase public spending or reduce taxes to inject more money into the economy. This could stimulate demand, leading to higher economic growth particularly when interest rates are low and public investment can target infrastructure.

  2. Supply-Side Reforms:
    These reforms could include improving labor market flexibility, reducing regulatory burdens for businesses, and investing in education and training. By enhancing the productivity and efficiency of the workforce, supply-side reforms can foster economic growth and potentially increase incomes over time, thereby contributing to a healthy economy.

  3. Balancing Act:
    It is crucial for governments to balance fiscal stimuli with long-term sustainability to avoid potential debt crises that could arise from persistent budget deficits.

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