The formula P = 6800 x 1.045^n is used to predict the population, P, of an island n years after 2018 - OCR - GCSE Maths - Question 16 - 2021 - Paper 1

The formula uses a growth factor of 1.045. To find the percentage growth rate, we subtract 1 from the growth factor and multiply by 100:

$ext{Percentage Growth Rate} = (1.045 - 1) \times 100 = 0.045 \times 100 = 4.5\%.$

For the year 2030, n = 12 (since 2030 is 12 years after 2018).

Using the formula:

$P = 6800 \times 1.045^{12}.$

Calculating this gives:

$P \approx 6800 \times 1.601 = 10845.68.$

Thus, the predicted population for the year 2030 is approximately 10846.

The prediction may not be reliable because it assumes that the growth rate remains constant over the years. In reality, factors such as changes in immigration, birth rates, economic conditions, or environmental changes can affect population growth, leading to different outcomes.