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Balance of payments Simplified Revision Notes

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2.5 Balance of payments

DEFINITIONS:

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  1. The Balance of Payments: set of accounts that show the transactions between one country and the rest of the world
  2. The Current Account: account identifying transactions in goods and services, income payments and transfers between the country and the rest of the world
  3. The Financial Account: identifying transactions in financial assets between one country and the rest of the world
  4. The Capital Account: account identifying transactions in physical assets between residents of one country and the rest of the world
  5. The Current Account Surplus: inflows of money > outflows of money for net exports of goods and services, primary and secondary income
  6. The Current Account Deficit: outflows of money > inflows of money into the country for net exports

Explain:

2.5.1 Balance of payments

The balance of payments (BoP) is a comprehensive record of a country's economic transactions with the rest of the world over a specific period, typically a year. It includes three main components:

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  1. Current Account: This includes trade in goods and services, income from investments, and current transfers. It records exports and imports of goods (visible trade), services (invisible trade), primary income (earnings on investments), and secondary income (transfers like remittances).
  2. Capital Account: This involves capital transfers and transactions in non-produced, non-financial assets. It includes things like debt forgiveness, inheritance taxes, and the transfer of ownership of fixed assets.
  3. Financial Account: This records investment flows, including direct investment, portfolio investment, and other investments (like loans and banking capital). It tracks how a country finances its current account deficit or surplus.

The balance of payments should always balance, meaning the sum of the current account, capital account, and financial account should be zero, although imbalances in individual components can indicate economic issues.

2.5.2 The components of the current account: trade in goods, trade in services, primary and secondary income

The current account of the balance of payments records a country's transactions with the rest of the world. It consists of four main components:

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  1. Trade in Goods:
  • This refers to the export and import of physical goods. Exports of goods bring money into the country, while imports of goods send money out. Examples include machinery, electronics, food, and raw materials.
  1. Trade in Services:
  • This involves the export and import of intangible products. Exports of services bring revenue into the country, and imports of services send money out. Examples include financial services, tourism, education, and consulting.
  1. Primary Income:
  • This includes earnings from investments and employment. It encompasses wages, salaries earned abroad, and returns on investments such as dividends, interest, and profits from foreign-owned companies.
  1. Secondary Income:
  • Also known as current transfers, this consists of unilateral transfers between countries. It includes remittances, foreign aid, grants, and donations, where money is transferred without any goods or services being exchanged.

These components together reflect the net flow of money from international trade and income, impacting the overall balance of a country's payments.

2.5.3 The policy objective of a sustainable balance of payments position

A sustainable balance of payments (BoP) position refers to a situation where a country's international financial transactions are balanced over the long term without leading to problematic deficits or surpluses that could destabilize the economy. Achieving this involves managing the current account, which includes trade in goods and services, income, and current transfers, as well as the capital and financial accounts, which track investments and financial flows.

Key Points:

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  1. Current Account Balance: Ensuring that exports and imports of goods and services, along with net income and current transfers, are balanced to avoid large deficits or surpluses. Persistent deficits can lead to increasing foreign debt, while persistent surpluses may indicate underinvestment in the domestic economy.
  2. Capital and Financial Accounts: Managing these to support sustainable investments and avoid excessive reliance on short-term capital flows, which can be volatile.
  3. Foreign Exchange Reserves: Maintaining adequate reserves to handle external shocks and ensure confidence in the country's ability to meet its international obligations.
  4. Exchange Rate Stability: Ensuring the exchange rate remains at a level that supports sustainable trade balances, avoiding excessive depreciation or appreciation that can disrupt the economy.
  5. Economic Growth and Stability: Aligning BoP objectives with broader economic policies to foster sustainable economic growth, employment, and price stability.

Achieving a sustainable BoP position helps a country maintain economic stability, foster investor confidence, and support long-term economic growth.

2.5.4 Imbalances on the balance of payments

Imbalances on the balance of payments refer to situations where there is a persistent surplus or deficit in one of the accounts that make up the balance of payments.

Causes of Imbalances

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  1. Economic Factors: Differences in inflation rates, productivity levels, and economic growth can lead to trade imbalances.
  2. Exchange Rates: A strong currency makes exports more expensive and imports cheaper, potentially leading to a current account deficit.
  3. Structural Factors: The nature of an economy (e.g., resource-rich versus manufacturing-based) can lead to imbalances.
  4. Government Policies: Fiscal and monetary policies can impact the balance of payments, such as through tariffs, subsidies, or exchange rate policies.

Consequences of Imbalances

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  1. Deficit: May lead to increased foreign debt, depreciation of the currency, and potentially loss of investor confidence.
  2. Surplus: While generally seen as positive, it can lead to trade tensions and pressure on the currency to appreciate.

Correction Mechanisms

infoNote
  1. Market Mechanisms: Exchange rate adjustments can help correct imbalances by making exports cheaper and imports more expensive in the case of a deficit.
  2. Policy Interventions: Governments can implement policies to influence trade balances, such as tariffs, subsidies, or currency manipulation.

Imbalances on the balance of payments can significantly impact an economy, influencing exchange rates, inflation, and economic growth. Managing these imbalances is crucial for economic stability.

Explain & Calculate

2.5.5 Balances on the different components on the balance of payments

Balance of Payments (BoP) Components

The Balance of Payments (BoP) is a comprehensive record of a country's economic transactions with the rest of the world over a specific period. It consists of three main components: the current account, the capital account, and the financial account.

1. Current Account

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The current account records the flow of goods, services, income, and current transfers in and out of a country. It has four main sub-components:

  • Trade in Goods: Exports and imports of physical goods.
  • Trade in Services: Exports and imports of services (e.g., banking, tourism).
  • Primary Income: Earnings from foreign investments and payments made to foreign investors.
  • Secondary Income: Transfers without a quid pro quo (e.g., remittances, foreign aid).

2. Capital Account

infoNote

The capital account records capital transfers and the acquisition or disposal of non-produced, non-financial assets. This includes:

  • Capital Transfers: Debt forgiveness, migrant transfers, and transfer of ownership of fixed assets.
  • Non-Produced, Non-Financial Assets: Patents, copyrights, trademarks, and leases.

3. Financial Account

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The financial account records transactions that involve financial assets and liabilities between a country and the rest of the world. It includes:

  • Direct Investment: Investments in businesses or real estate (controlling interest).
  • Portfolio Investment: Investments in financial securities (e.g., stocks, bonds) without controlling interest.
  • Other Investments: Trade credits, loans, currency, and deposits.
  • Reserve Assets: Foreign currencies and other assets held by a country's central bank.

Calculation of Balances

Example:

infoNote

Suppose a country has the following transactions over a year (values in millions): 21. Current Account:

  • Trade in Goods: Exports = ÂŁ500, Imports = ÂŁ600
  • Trade in Services: Exports = ÂŁ200, Imports = ÂŁ150
  • Primary Income: Receipts = ÂŁ100, Payments = ÂŁ120
  • Secondary Income: Receipts = ÂŁ50, Payments = ÂŁ80
  1. Capital Account:
  • Capital Transfers: Receipts = ÂŁ30, Payments = ÂŁ10
  • Non-Produced, Non-Financial Assets: Receipts = ÂŁ5, Payments = ÂŁ2
  1. Financial Account:
  • Direct Investment: Inflows = ÂŁ200, Outflows = ÂŁ150
  • Portfolio Investment: Inflows = ÂŁ300, Outflows = ÂŁ250
  • Other Investments: Inflows = ÂŁ100, Outflows = ÂŁ90
  • Reserve Assets: Change = -ÂŁ50 (indicating a reduction in reserve assets)
infoNote

Calculation:

  1. Current Account Balance:
  • Trade in Goods Balance = Exports - Imports = ÂŁ500 - ÂŁ600 = -ÂŁ100
  • Trade in Services Balance = Exports - Imports = ÂŁ200 - ÂŁ150 = ÂŁ50
  • Primary Income Balance = Receipts - Payments = ÂŁ100 - ÂŁ120 = -ÂŁ20
  • Secondary Income Balance = Receipts - Payments = ÂŁ50 - ÂŁ80 = -ÂŁ30 Total Current Account Balance = -ÂŁ100 + ÂŁ50 - ÂŁ20 - ÂŁ30 = -ÂŁ100
  1. Capital Account Balance:
  • Capital Transfers Balance = Receipts - Payments = ÂŁ30 - ÂŁ10 = ÂŁ20
  • Non-Produced, Non-Financial Assets Balance = Receipts - Payments = ÂŁ5 - ÂŁ2 = ÂŁ3 Total Capital Account Balance = ÂŁ20 + ÂŁ3 = ÂŁ23
  1. Financial Account Balance:
  • Direct Investment Balance = Inflows - Outflows = ÂŁ200 - ÂŁ150 = ÂŁ50
  • Portfolio Investment Balance = Inflows - Outflows = ÂŁ300 - ÂŁ250 = ÂŁ50
  • Other Investments Balance = Inflows - Outflows = ÂŁ100 - ÂŁ90 = ÂŁ10
  • Reserve Assets Balance = Change = -ÂŁ50 (indicating a reduction in reserves) Total Financial Account Balance = ÂŁ50 + ÂŁ50 + ÂŁ10 - ÂŁ50 = ÂŁ60

Summary:

  • Current Account Balance: -ÂŁ100 million (deficit)
  • Capital Account Balance: ÂŁ23 million (surplus)
  • Financial Account Balance: ÂŁ60 million (surplus) Overall, the BoP should balance when taking all components into account, including possible errors and omissions. In this example:

Current Account Balance + Capital Account Balance + Financial Account Balance =

-ÂŁ100 + ÂŁ23 + ÂŁ60 = -ÂŁ17

The negative balance indicates discrepancies or unrecorded transactions, often adjusted for with an "errors and omissions" line in official records to ensure the BoP balances to zero.

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