34.3.2 Order and security and the likelihood of conflict

Human Nature and State Behaviour

• Self-Help System: In the realist view, the international system is anarchic—there is no overarching authority to enforce order. This anarchy compels states to rely on themselves for security, leading to a self-help system where power is the primary currency.
• National Interest and Power: Realists argue that states act primarily in their own national interest, seeking to maximize power to ensure their survival. This often leads to a zero-sum game where the gain of one state is perceived as the loss of another, increasing the likelihood of conflict.

Global Economy and Power Dynamics

• Hierarchical International Society: Realists are sceptical of the global economy's capacity to ensure equality among states. They see international society as hierarchical, where powerful states dominate institutions like the Bretton Woods system (e.g., the IMF, World Bank). Consequently, realists often oppose foreign aid, preferring to conserve power within these institutions rather than promoting global equality.
• Minarchism and State Sovereignty: Influenced by thinkers like Ayn Rand and Robert Nozick, realists may advocate for a minimal state (minarchism), emphasizing the importance of state sovereignty and the pursuit of national goals over collective international obligations.

Conflict and the Security Dilemma

• Security Dilemma: In a world where states seek to maximize their security, actions taken by one state to increase its security (e.g., military build-up) can make other states feel less secure, leading to an arms race and increased tensions—this is known as the security dilemma. The realist perspective thus suggests that conflict is inevitable, as states continuously seek to outmaneuver each other to ensure their survival.

Liberalism: Order and Security through Cooperation and Interdependence

Human Nature and International Cooperation

• Optimistic View of Human Nature: Liberals believe in the potential for human cooperation and progress. They argue that while states may pursue self-interest, they are also capable of recognizing shared interests and cooperating to achieve mutual benefits.
• Democratic Peace Theory: Central to liberal thought is the belief that democracies are less likely to go to war with one another, a concept known as the democratic peace theory. This is based on the idea that democratic governments, accountable to their citizens, are more likely to resolve conflicts through dialogue and negotiation.

Economic Interdependence and Peace

• Economic Interdependence: Liberals argue that as states become more economically interdependent, the cost of conflict increases. Trade and economic ties create mutual benefits that states are reluctant to jeopardize through war. Joseph Nye's theory of "complex interdependence" suggests that in a globalized world, military power becomes less relevant, while economic and soft power gains importance.
• Globalization: The liberal perspective sees globalization as a force for peace, promoting economic ties and cultural exchanges that can reduce misunderstandings and foster a sense of global community.

International Institutions and Collective Security

• Role of International Institutions: Liberals emphasize the importance of international institutions in maintaining order and security. Organizations like the United Nations, the International Criminal Court, and various regional bodies can mediate disputes, enforce international law, and impose sanctions on states that violate norms.
• Kantian Triangle: Immanuel Kant's idea of a "pacific federation" of states underpins the liberal belief in collective security. The Kantian triangle—comprising democracy, economic interdependence, and international institutions—suggests that these three elements together create a stable and peaceful international order.

Challenges to Liberalism

• Resistance and Democratic Regression: Despite liberal optimism, recent global events such as the rise of non-state terrorism, democratic regression, and resistance to the spread of democracy (e.g., in Iraq and Afghanistan) challenge the liberal vision. These issues highlight the complexity of achieving global peace and the persistent relevance of realist concerns about power and security.

Conclusion: Likelihood of Conflict – Liberal vs. Realist Perspectives

• Realist View: Realists argue that conflict is a constant threat in an anarchic international system where states prioritize power and survival. The security dilemma, competition for resources, and distrust among states make conflict likely and often inevitable.
• Liberal View: Liberals, on the other hand, believe that conflict can be mitigated through cooperation, economic interdependence, and the rule of law. While they acknowledge the anarchic nature of the international system, they argue that institutions, democracy, and global trade create pathways to peace and stability.