4.1.3 Factors Shaping Election Outcomes: Class, Partisanship, and Voting Patterns

Class-Based Voting and Other Factors Influencing Voting Patterns

Class-Based Voting

Definition and Importance

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Class-Based Voting: Voting behavior strongly influenced by an individual's socio-economic class. Traditionally, this was a dominant factor in UK elections.

Historical Context

Traditional Patterns: The working class traditionally supported the Labour Party, while the middle and upper classes leaned towards the Conservative Party.

Statistics and Examples

1945 General Election: Labour won a landslide victory with 48.8% of the vote, largely supported by working-class voters.
1979 General Election: Conservatives won with 43.9%, indicating some working-class shift towards Conservative policies under Margaret Thatcher.

Recent Trends and Examples

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2019 UK General Election: The Conservative Party made significant gains in traditionally Labour-supporting working-class areas (Red Wall), demonstrating a shift in class-based voting patterns. For instance, the Conservatives won constituencies like Workington and Blyth Valley for the first time in decades.
In the 2019 General Election, 39% of class DE voted Labour and 45% of class AB voted Conservative.

Partisanship and Voting Attachment

Definition and Importance

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Partisanship: Long-term loyalty to a particular political party.
Voting Attachment: The degree of voter loyalty to a party, often influenced by family, community, and long-term ideological alignment.

Factors Affecting Partisanship

Political Socialization: Family traditions, education, and community influence shape party loyalty.
Party Identification: Strong identification with a party can lead to consistent voting behavior across elections.

Statistics and Examples

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1964 General Election: Labour received 44.1% of the vote, benefiting from strong partisan loyalty among working-class voters.
1997 General Election: Labour's landslide victory with 43.2% of the vote, reflecting renewed voter attachment to the party under Tony Blair's leadership.

Recent Trends and Examples

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2016 EU Referendum: Brexit reshaped traditional party loyalties, leading to shifts in voting patterns.
2019 UK General Election: Many Labour voters shifted to the Conservative Party due to Brexit, resulting in Conservative victories in areas like Bolsover and Sedgefield, historically Labour strongholds.

Other Influential Factors

Age

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Younger Voters: Generally support progressive parties like Labour and the Liberal Democrats.
Older Voters: More likely to vote for the Conservative Party.

In the 2017 general election, Labour, under Jeremy Corbyn, made significant gains among younger voters. Statistics and Examples:

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2017 General Election: 62% of voters aged 18-24 voted Labour, while 61% of voters aged 65 and over voted Conservative.
2019 General Election: Similar trends continued, with Labour receiving significant support from younger voters and Conservatives dominating the older age brackets.

Education

Higher Education: Graduates tend to support progressive parties.
Non-Graduates: More likely to vote Conservative. Statistics and Examples:

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2017 General Election: 49% of degree holders voted Labour, while 55% of those with no qualifications voted Conservative.
2019 General Election: The educational divide persisted, with Labour performing better among graduates and Conservatives among non-graduates.

Ethnicity

Minority Ethnic Groups: Tend to support Labour.
White Voters: More evenly split but lean towards Conservative. Statistics and Examples:

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2017 General Election: 73% of BAME (Black, Asian, and Minority Ethnic) voters supported Labour.
2019 General Election: Labour retained significant support among ethnic minority voters, though overall voter demographics were more nuanced.

Region

Urban vs Rural: Urban areas tend to support Labour and the Liberal Democrats; rural areas lean towards Conservatives. Statistics and Examples:

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2017 General Election: Labour dominated urban constituencies, while Conservatives performed well in rural areas.
2019 General Election: Conservatives maintained their strength in rural and suburban areas, with Labour strong in urban centers like London, though with some losses.

Conclusion

Analyzing the outcomes of elections involves examining a range of factors including class-based voting, partisanship, age, education, ethnicity, and regional differences. Historical data and recent trends demonstrate both continuity and change in these patterns.

For example, while class-based voting has traditionally been strong, recent elections have shown significant shifts, particularly influenced by major events like Brexit. Understanding these factors provides a comprehensive insight into the dynamics of electoral behavior in the UK.

Factors Shaping Election Outcomes: Class, Partisanship, and Voting Patterns Simplified Revision Notes for A-Level AQA Politics

4.1.3 Factors Shaping Election Outcomes: Class, Partisanship, and Voting Patterns

Class-Based Voting and Other Factors Influencing Voting Patterns

Class-Based Voting

Definition and Importance

Historical Context

Statistics and Examples

Recent Trends and Examples

Partisanship and Voting Attachment

Definition and Importance

Factors Affecting Partisanship

Statistics and Examples

Recent Trends and Examples

Other Influential Factors

Age

Education

Ethnicity

Region

Conclusion

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