21.1.1 US Presidential Election Process and Key Stages

Constitutional Requirements

• Age and Citizenship: A candidate must be at least 35 years old, a natural-born citizen of the United States, and have been a resident for at least 14 years.
• Term Limits: Presidents are limited to two terms in office as per the 22nd Amendment.

Stage 1: The Invisible Primary

• Purpose: Candidates aim to gain early momentum and support, often engaging in debates and media appearances.

• Correlation: There's a strong correlation between leading in the polls at the end of the invisible primary and winning the presidential nomination.
• Fundraising: Candidates who fail to raise sufficient funds often drop out early. For instance, Mike Pence dropped out due to limited funds. Clinton raised $47 million by the second quarter in 2016.

Stage 2: Primaries and Caucuses

• Purpose: States hold votes where party members choose their preferred candidate to represent them in the presidential election.

• Types of Primaries:

  • Caucus: A meeting of party members who debate and vote (often by show of hands).
  • Open Primary: Any voter can vote in a party's primary, but only one party's primary.
  • Semi-Closed/Modified Primary: Registered party members and independents can vote.
  • Closed Primary: Only registered party members can vote.

• Super Tuesday: Many states hold primaries on this day to influence the outcome. In 2022, 14 states participated. Iowa's caucus is particularly significant as it sets the tone for the race. Advantages:

• Democratic Participation: Voters have a direct say in choosing the nominee.

• Candidate Testing: Candidates must appeal across diverse demographics and regions.

• Policy Discussion: Debates and primaries offer insight into candidates' policy positions.

• Voter Choice: Allows for choice between factions within a party. Disadvantages:

• Cost and Length: Campaigns are long and expensive, potentially leading to voter fatigue and favoring well-funded candidates.

• Internal Divides: Can highlight party divisions, leading to fragmentation.
• Disproportionate Influence: Early states like Iowa and Super Tuesday states have outsized influence. Biden and Trump both benefitted from strong Super Tuesday performances.
• Scandals: For example, the 2020 Iowa caucus faced vote-tallying challenges, raising questions about the integrity of the process.
• Interim Televised Debates: Debates are easily accessible, but some candidates, like Trump in 2024, may choose not to attend.

Stage 3: National Party Conventions

• Purpose: Officially nominates the presidential candidate and approves the party platform.
• Process:
  • Delegate Voting: Pledged delegates vote to decide the nominee.
  • Running Mate Selection: Candidates often choose a running mate to balance the ticket (e.g., Biden chose Harris, Trump chose Pence).
  • Party Unity: Conventions aim to unify the party, featuring speeches from various party leaders (e.g., Bernie Sanders at the 2020 Democratic Convention).
  • Adoption of Party Platform: A document outlining the party's policies and goals.

General Election Campaign

• Campaign Rallies: Focus on key battleground (swing) states, which are crucial in deciding the election (e.g., Ohio, Florida in 2020).
• Media: Plays a crucial role in shaping public perception. Candidates use TV ads, social media, and press appearances extensively.
  • Example: In 2020, both Biden and Trump relied heavily on media to drive their campaigns.
• Town Halls and Rallies: Provide opportunities to connect directly with voters. Trump used large-scale rallies effectively in 2016.
• Debates: High-stakes events that allow candidates to present their policies and challenge opponents. In 2020, there were three debates.
  • National Audience: These debates provide candidates with a platform to reach a broad audience, though they often focus on soundbites rather than detailed policy discussions.

Election Day

• Federalism: Each state has different rules and processes for voting.
• Polling: Polls open across all 50 states and D.C., with the popular vote in each state determining the allocation of electoral votes.

Electoral College

• Definition: A group of 538 electors from each state who vote for the president. Each state's number of electors is based on its population.

• Winner-Takes-All: Most states award all their electoral votes to the candidate who wins the state's popular vote. However, there are rogue or "faithless" electors who may not vote according to the popular vote, though this is rare (e.g., 7 in 2016, none in 2020). Criticisms:

• Undemocratic: A candidate can win the popular vote but lose the presidency, as in the 2016 election where Trump won the electoral vote while Clinton won the popular vote.

• Overrepresentation: Smaller states have disproportionate influence (e.g., California's electoral votes represent three times as many people as Wyoming's).

• Bellwether States: States like Pennsylvania and Florida receive disproportionate attention during campaigns. Defences:

• Federalism: Ensures that smaller states are represented, preserving the federal structure.

• Prevents Tyranny: Disperses power and guards against the tyranny of the majority.

• Clear Winner: Typically produces a clear winner with a strong mandate to govern, contributing to the stability of the two-party system.

• National Popular Vote Interstate Compact: An agreement among some states to allocate their electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote, though this could undermine federalism.

• Vice President's Role: The VP certifies the election results.

Resulting Party System

• Two-Party Dominance: The electoral college and FPTP system have entrenched a two-party system where Republicans and Democrats dominate, holding 98% of the vote in 2020.
• Third Parties: Struggle due to the winner-takes-all electoral system, which does not allocate electoral votes proportionally.

Is the electoral system for electing a president fit for purpose?

Yes	No
In 2 of the last 6 elections, the winner of the popular vote has lost in the electoral college, undermining modern principles of popular sovereignty and an outdated constitution.	The Electoral College ensures that smaller states remain represented. It helps federalism by allowing differing electoral procedures in each state.
Excludes third parties from the electoral process as the ECV are not allocated proportionally, and third-party votes tend to be thinly spread.	The electoral college guards against the tyranny of the majority nationally. The Founding Fathers (FF) were not convinced about the wisdom of popular sovereignty, and this disperses power away from the public.
Small states are overrepresented. California's ECVs represent 3 times as many people as Wyoming's.	No consensus on what should replace the ECV. Reforms suggested are difficult to achieve due to the difficulty of passing a constitutional amendment. This is because the system benefits the Republican Party, so they would block reform. It would also require small states to agree, and small states that currently benefit would block it as they would not want to lose their influence.
Bellwether states are overrepresented, as their votes can change the election. The majority of states are ignored throughout the process. In 2016, these states saw focus, while blue or red states received less attention. This was the same in 2020, with 96% of election campaign events held in just 12 states, Pennsylvania and Florida holding over 1/3 of these events.	The system protects the federal structure of the United States. California and Texas have larger populations and control the media and economy, while smaller states balance this out.
3rd party candidates are rarely viable due to the major party two-party dominance caused by the electoral college. Jill Stein in 2016 did not even make the 5% required for federal matching funds.	The current system promotes the two-party system and fosters strong government stability. It helps avoid a fragmented system and ensures cohesive governance.

Evaluate the Extent to Which the Presidential Selection and Election Process Is Democratic

Invisible Primary

• Invisible primarycandidates announce themselves as nominees to run for President in both the Republican and Democrat party
• In the 2024 Presidential election, Trump, Ramaswamy, DeSantis, and Haley announced themselves as nominees
• Allows candidates to gain coverage by announcing themselves
• Allows the ordinary voter to have a wide choice of candidates-makes it democratic
• Voters can align themselves with a candidate
• Stress tests through images on the media, shows whether candidates are capable and suitable
• Background checks done by the FBI

EVALUATION:

• Can be somewhat undemocratic because it is dominated by fundraising, and can deter potential candidates
• Ron DeSantis has dropped out of the 2024 Republican presidential election
• Clinton 2016, dominated as the Democrat candidate as she raised the most money
• Jeb Bush did not put himself forward in 2016 as he was unsure whether he was able to fundraise enough

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Primaries and Caucuses

• Primary the party sets out their candidates eg Biden as the Democrat candidate in 2020
• Parties will choose a candidate who has the highest chance of winning, who will implement policies to please and benefit the people
• Allows voters to align themselves with a presidential candidate
• Primaries allow voters to directly vote for candidates, making it democratic

EVALUATION:

• Open primaries can cause party crashing/crossover votingvoters vote in a rival's party primary to support a controversial candidate. This is undemocratic as it may result in an unrepresentative candidate meetings where participants express support. Caucuses**:**

• Caucuses have low turnouts and often unrepresentative- dominated by party bosses

• In the build up to the 2020 election in Iowa, Nevada, North Dakota, and Wyoming

• Results were delayed in Iowa due to a newly developed app, which led to a delay in results

• This caused controversy as Bernie Sanders won all the delegates in Iowa

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Electoral College

• The last stage of the presidential selection process, signifying it has a huge significance
• Indirect vote between voters
• Voters vote for an elector who will represent the voters in the state
• California has 55 electors as it is a huge state
• Preserved system and content amongst the American people, showing its democratic as the people like the system 270 points needed to win out of 538
• "Winner Takes All" system so the popular vote is not needed to become President eg Bush in 2000, and Trump in 2016
• The Electoral College is disproportional, for example every 1 elector in Wyoming represents 180,000 voters, but in California, every elector represents 730,000 voters

EVALUATION:

• No majority is needed, you only need one vote more than second place
• Lots of votes are wasted which makes lots of voters feel unrepresented
• 21 out of 50 states are not required by law to stick with the delegate vote- but this has not been an issue as of yet in a Presidential election