34.1.3 Inevitability of war.

The Inevitability of War in Global Politics

Security Dilemma

Uncertainty and Suspicion Among States: The security dilemma arises from the inherent uncertainty in international relations, where states are unsure of each other's intentions. Even if a state's actions are purely defensive, other states may perceive these actions as a threat to their security.

• Defensive Actions Leading to Increased Tensions: When one state increases its military capabilities for defense, other states may respond by enhancing their own military power. This cycle of action and reaction can lead to an arms race, escalating tensions, and increasing the likelihood of conflict.
• Example: The Cold War arms race between the United States and the Soviet Union is a classic example of the security dilemma, where both superpowers continuously built up their nuclear arsenals in response to the perceived threat from the other.

Absence of World Government

Lack of an Overarching Authority: In the international system, there is no central authority or world government to enforce rules, mediate disputes, or constrain state behaviour. This anarchic structure means that states must rely on their own resources and strategies to secure their survival.

• No Barrier Against Conflict: Without a world government, there is no higher power to prevent or resolve conflicts between states. Institutions like the United Nations may attempt to mediate or manage conflicts, but they lack the enforcement power to constrain sovereign states effectively.
• Survival Through Military Self-Help: According to structural realists, states operate in a self-help system where their primary concern is survival. In this environment, military power becomes the main tool for ensuring security, leading to a perpetual risk of war.
• Example: The ongoing conflicts in regions like the Middle East, where the UN has limited influence, highlight the challenges of preventing war in an anarchic international system.

Relative Gains

Pursuit of Power and Position: States are not only concerned with their absolute security but also with their relative position in comparison to other states. This drive for relative gains—improving one's power and influence relative to others—can discourage cooperation and make conflict more likely.

• Zero-Sum Game in Global Politics: In a zero-sum game, the gains of one state are perceived as losses by another. This mentality fosters competition rather than cooperation, as states prioritize their own advancement over collective security or mutual benefit.
• Example: The trade war between the United States and China can be seen through the lens of relative gains, where both countries seek to outmaneuver each other economically, even at the risk of escalating tensions and potentially leading to broader conflicts.

The Security Dilemma

• Conflict and War as Inevitable: Conflict and war are inevitable because state relations are always built on uncertainty and suspicion.
• Reinforcement of the State as Key Actor: The security dilemma arises when states, seeking to defend their interests, engage in actions that make other states feel threatened. This often leads to an arms race or other security measures, reinforcing the state's role as the primary actor in global politics.
  • Defensive Strategies and Provocation: A defensive strategy, therefore, could actually provoke conflict despite its intent to avoid it.
• Misinterpretation of Actions: If one state misreads the actions of another state as aggressive, it could lead to conflict.
• Risk of New State Threats: As states enhance their security, they inadvertently create new threats by provoking other states to respond in kind. This cycle underscores the importance of states in maintaining their own security and sovereignty.
• Example: The U.S. and China's military build-up in the Asia-Pacific region reflects the security dilemma, where actions taken by one state to secure itself are perceived as threats by others, leading to a regional arms race.