19.4.3 The U.S. Election Cycle and Divided Government

The General Election Campaign

Campaign Rallies:

Media Influence:

• Role in Public Perception: Media plays a crucial role in shaping public perception through television ads, social media, and press appearances. In the 2020 election, both Biden and Trump heavily utilized media to reach voters, highlighting its importance in modern campaigns. Town Halls and Rallies:

• Direct Voter Engagement: Town halls and rallies provide candidates with opportunities to connect directly with voters. Trump's 2016 campaign, for instance, was notable for its large-scale rallies, which energized his base and attracted media coverage. Debates:

• High-Stakes Events: Presidential debates are pivotal moments in the campaign, offering candidates a platform to present their policies and challenge their opponents. In 2020, three debates were scheduled, although only two took place. These debates can influence undecided voters and are widely covered by the media, offering a national platform for the candidates. National Perception:

• Media Coverage: The national coverage of campaigns often focuses on soundbites rather than in-depth policy discussions. This has led to criticisms that elections are becoming more about personality and less about substantive debate, turning campaigns into popularity contests rather than serious discussions on policy.

Election Day

State Variability:

• Federalism in Action: Election day in the U.S. is governed by federalism, meaning each state has its own rules and processes for conducting elections. This includes variations in voting methods, poll opening and closing times, and how votes are counted. Popular Vote Tally:

• State-by-State Results: On election day, polls open across the 50 states and Washington D.C. Once voting concludes, the popular votes in each state are totaled. These state-by-state results determine how each state's electoral votes will be cast in the Electoral College.

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Electoral College

Structure and Function:

• Article 1, Clause 2: The Electoral College is composed of 538 electors who cast votes for the President based on the popular vote in each state. Most states operate on a "winner-takes-all" basis, meaning the candidate who wins the popular vote in a state receives all of that state's electoral votes. Faithless Electors:

• Deviation from Popular Vote: While most electors vote according to the popular vote in their state, there are instances of "faithless electors" who cast their votes differently. In 2016, there were seven such electors, but none in 2020, reflecting efforts to align the Electoral College more closely with the popular vote. Debates on Democracy:

• Criticism of the System: The Electoral College has been criticized as undemocratic because it allows a candidate to win the presidency without winning the popular vote. This occurred in 2016 when Trump won the presidency despite Clinton receiving more popular votes. Protection of Smaller States:

• Federal Balance: Supporters of the Electoral College argue that it protects the interests of smaller states, ensuring they have a voice in the election. Without this system, candidates might focus solely on populous states, ignoring smaller ones. 2020 Election Example:

• Electoral College Outcome: In the 2020 election, although Biden and Trump each won 25 states, Biden secured 306 electoral votes compared to Trump's 232, demonstrating the influence of the Electoral College in deciding the presidency. Tie Scenario:

• House and Senate Roles: In the event of an Electoral College tie, the House of Representatives chooses the President, and the Senate chooses the Vice President. This scenario, though rare, highlights the complex nature of the U.S. electoral system.

Divided Government

Definition and Impact:

• Division of Power: A divided government occurs when one party controls the presidency while the other controls one or both houses of Congress. This division can lead to significant challenges in passing legislation, as the President's ability to push through their agenda is often obstructed by the opposing party. Legislative Gridlock:

• Challenges in Lawmaking: In a divided government, legislative gridlock is common, where the two branches of government are unable to agree on policy, resulting in stalemates. This can prevent the passage of significant legislation and slow down the government's functioning. Historical Examples:

• Obama's Second Term: After the 2010 midterms, Obama faced a divided government, with Republicans controlling the House. This led to significant challenges in advancing his legislative priorities, such as immigration reform and gun control.

• Trump's Presidency: Trump also faced divided government after the 2018 midterms, with Democrats taking control of the House. This resulted in difficulties passing his policy agenda, leading to increased reliance on executive orders.

• Biden's Presidency: Biden has faced challenges with a narrowly divided Congress, particularly in passing major legislation like the Build Back Better Act. The Republican control of the House after the 2022 midterms further complicated his legislative efforts.

Table: Key Elements of the U.S. Election Cycle and Divided Government

Aspect	Details	Examples
General Election Campaign	Focus on battleground states, media influence, rallies, town halls, and debates.	2020 election: Biden vs. Trump, media-driven campaigns, debates.
Election Day	State-by-state rules, federalism in action, popular vote tallied across 50 states.	Variations in voting methods, polling times, and vote counting.
Electoral College	538 electors, winner-takes-all system, faithless electors, and potential undemocratic outcomes.	2016: Trump wins presidency despite losing popular vote; 2020: Biden wins 306 electoral votes.
Divided Government	Occurs when the presidency and Congress are controlled by different parties, leading to gridlock.	Obama post-2010 midterms, Trump post-2018 midterms, Biden post-2022 midterms.