21.6.1 Factors Influencing Voting Patterns: Race, Religion, Gender, and Education in Recent Presidential Campaigns

Race

White Voters:

• Republican Support: The majority of white voters have traditionally favored the Republican Party, a trend that has persisted since 1968. In the 2020 election, Trump secured 57% of the white vote, although this was a slight decrease from his performance in 2016. This group generally perceives Republican policies as being more aligned with their interests, particularly in opposition to the progressive agenda of the Democrats, which is often associated with bigger government and higher taxes.
• Biden's Gains: Despite Trump's majority, Biden managed to reduce the Republican margin among white voters, especially in key swing states. This shift was significant enough to help Biden secure victories in several of these states. Notably, many of these voters were white males who switched their support to the Democrats in 2020.

Black American Voters:

• Democratic Dominance: Black American voters overwhelmingly supported Biden, with a 75% margin, although this was the lowest margin for a Democratic candidate since 2004. Trump did, however, improve his share of the Black vote from 8% in 2016 to 12% in 2020, with much of this support coming from male voters.
• Reasons for Trump's Gains: Factors contributing to Trump's increased support among Black voters included his economic policies and the "Black Voices for Trump" campaign, which, despite its misleading claims, resonated with some voters who believed Trump would better ensure financial security.

Hispanic Voters:

• Complex Demographics: The Hispanic vote is highly diverse, including Cuban-Americans, Mexican-Americans, and others, each with different concerns and priorities. Trump increased his share of the Hispanic vote by 11% in Florida, largely due to his anti-socialism rhetoric, which resonated with Cuban and Venezuelan communities.
• Democratic Retention: Despite Trump's gains among Hispanics, Biden managed to retain enough support from this demographic, offsetting Trump's gains with increased Black voter turnout and losses among white voters.

2. Religion

Evangelicals:

• Continued Republican Support: Evangelicals remained a crucial voting bloc for Trump, with approximately 77% of them supporting him in 2020, down slightly from 81% in 2016. The slight decline was mainly due to younger evangelical voters who were less inclined to support Trump.
• Biden's Appeal: Biden made concerted efforts to connect with evangelical voters, using language and themes that resonated with this group, although Trump still secured the majority of their votes.

Catholics:

• Shift Towards Biden: Catholic support for Trump dropped from 52% in 2016 to around 47% in 2020. Biden, being a practicing Catholic, was able to appeal to this demographic, though he did not receive the overwhelming Catholic support seen in John F. Kennedy's 1960 campaign.

Jewish Voters:

• Strong Support for Biden: Jewish voters overwhelmingly supported Biden, with 77% of the Jewish vote, compared to 21% for Trump. This was higher than the support Clinton received in 2016. Jewish voters prioritized issues like the coronavirus pandemic, climate change, and healthcare, which aligned more with Biden's platform than Trump's.

3. Gender

General Trends:

• Male Support for Republicans: In line with historical trends, men were more likely to support Trump, with 53% of male voters casting their ballots for him.
• Female Support for Democrats: Women, who tend to be more reliable voters, supported Biden by a significant margin, with 57% of women voting for him. This aligns with the Democratic Party's policies, which often focus on issues important to women.

Intersection of Gender and Race:

• White Women's Vote: Despite polling that suggested otherwise, 55% of white women voted for Trump in 2020. This reflects the complexity of voting patterns when gender and race are considered together.

4. Education

Educational Divide:

• University Graduates: The 2020 election saw a continued trend where voters with higher educational qualifications tended to support Biden. Fifty-five percent of voters with a university degree supported Biden, compared to 42% for Trump. This reflects an increasing educational divide in U.S. politics.
• Non-College Graduates: Among voters without a university degree, there was no significant gap between support for the two candidates. However, when race is factored in, white non-college voters showed strong support for Trump, with 57% of this group backing him.

Conclusion

In summary, race, religion, gender, and education played pivotal roles in shaping voter behavior during the 2020 U.S. Presidential election. These factors are interlinked and provide a comprehensive understanding of the voting patterns that emerged during the election. To analyze voting behavior effectively, it's crucial to consider these factors in combination, as they often interact in complex ways to influence electoral outcomes.