4.1.5 National Voting Behaviour Patterns: Analysis and Variations

The 2024 UK General Election

The 2024 UK General Election, held on 4th July, marked a significant shift in the political landscape, with various factors influencing national voting behavior patterns. These patterns can be analyzed through the lens of electoral data, party performance, voter turnout, and the impact of demographic changes.

National Voting-Behavior Patterns

Labour Party Success

• Labour's Dominance: The Labour Party, under Sir Keir Starmer, emerged as the dominant force, winning 411 seats with 34% of the vote. Despite a relatively modest increase in vote share (1.6 percentage points up from 2019), Labour's ability to secure a large number of seats reflects the effectiveness of their campaign strategy and the significant decline in Conservative support.
• Regional Variations: Labour's success was particularly pronounced in urban areas and regions that had previously supported Brexit but were now disillusioned with the Conservative handling of post-Brexit issues. Labour made substantial gains in the North of England, Midlands, and parts of Wales, regions where they had lost ground in 2019.
• Vote Efficiency: Labour's vote share translating into a large majority of seats highlights the efficiency of their vote distribution. Labour managed to win many marginal constituencies, often by small margins, which maximized their seat count.

Conservative Party Decline

• Historic Low: The Conservative Party faced a dramatic decline, winning only 121 seats with 24% of the vote, their worst performance since 1832. This 20 percentage point drop from 2019 indicates a significant shift in voter sentiment away from the Conservatives.
• Impact of Leadership Changes: The frequent changes in Conservative leadership—from Boris Johnson to Liz Truss, and finally Rishi Sunak—contributed to voter perceptions of instability and incompetence, leading to a loss of confidence in the party.
• Geographic Impact: The Conservative vote collapsed in many traditional strongholds, particularly in Southern England and rural areas, where voters turned to the Liberal Democrats or stayed home. The 'Red Wall' regions, which had swung to the Conservatives in 2019, largely reverted to Labour, reflecting disillusionment with the party's handling of economic and social issues.

Liberal Democrat Resurgence

• Significant Gains: The Liberal Democrats experienced a resurgence, winning 72 seats with 12.2% of the vote, their highest seat count since 1923. This performance was a marked improvement, with a 0.7 percentage point increase in vote share.
• Targeted Campaigning: The Liberal Democrats focused on Conservative-held marginal seats, particularly in the South West and parts of London, where they successfully capitalized on anti-Conservative sentiment. Their campaign emphasized local issues and a centrist alternative to the polarizing positions of Labour and the Conservatives.
• Voter Appeal: The Liberal Democrats attracted voters who were dissatisfied with both major parties, especially those who favored a more moderate approach to Brexit and domestic policies. Their appeal to pro-European, socially liberal voters was particularly effective in urban and suburban areas.

Rise of Smaller Parties

• Reform UK: The rebranded Brexit Party, now known as Reform UK, won five seats with 14.3% of the vote across Great Britain. Despite their significant vote share, their seat count remained low due to the First Past the Post (FPTP) system, which penalizes parties with dispersed support.
• Green Party: The Green Party of England and Wales made significant gains, winning four seats for the first time, with 6.7% of the vote, up from 2.7% in 2019. Their success was driven by growing public concern over environmental issues and effective campaigning in key constituencies.
• Scottish National Party (SNP) Decline: The SNP saw a substantial decline, winning only nine of the 57 seats in Scotland, compared to 48 of 59 in 2019. This drop was attributed to voter fatigue with the independence debate and increased competition from Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

Regional Party Performance

• Plaid Cymru: Plaid Cymru maintained its four seats in Wales but increased its vote share to 14.8%, the highest since 1929. This reflects a growing nationalist sentiment in Wales and effective local campaigning.
• Northern Ireland: In Northern Ireland, the electoral landscape remained complex, with Sinn Féin winning seven seats, the DUP five, and smaller parties like the Alliance Party gaining representation. The results highlighted ongoing divisions and the importance of local issues in Northern Irish politics.

Voter Turnout and Demographic Impact

Decline in Turnout

• Overall Decline: Turnout in the 2024 General Election was 59.8%, down from 67.3% in 2019. This decline suggests voter disengagement, possibly due to political fatigue, dissatisfaction with the major parties, or the perception that the election outcome was inevitable.
• Demographic Influence: Younger voters and ethnic minorities, who typically lean towards Labour and the Liberal Democrats, turned out in higher numbers in urban areas, contributing to Labour's success. Conversely, lower turnout in rural and suburban areas, traditionally Conservative strongholds, contributed to the Conservatives' poor performance.

Impact of Boundary Changes

• New Constituency Boundaries: The introduction of new constituency boundaries affected the electoral outcomes in several areas. While 65 seats remained unchanged, the redrawing of 585 constituencies impacted party strategies and voter behavior. In some areas, boundary changes diluted traditional party support, while in others, they created new battlegrounds.

Gender and Ethnicity

• Increased Representation of Women and Ethnic Minorities: The 2024 election saw a record number of women (263) and MPs from ethnic minority backgrounds (90) elected, reflecting ongoing changes in the demographic composition of Parliament. The Labour Party led in both categories, with 46% of its MPs being women and 16% from ethnic minorities.

National Voting-Behavior Patterns in the 2024 General Election

Party	Seats Won	Vote Share	Change from 2019	Key Factors
Labour Party	411	34%	+1.6 percentage points	Effective vote distribution, urban gains, leadership stability
Conservative Party	121	24%	-20 percentage points	Leadership instability, loss of traditional strongholds
Liberal Democrats	72	12.2%	+0.7 percentage points	Targeted campaigning, anti-Conservative sentiment
Reform UK	5	14.3%	+9.2 percentage points	Dispersed support, impact of FPTP
SNP	9	N/A	-39 seats	Decline in independence support, competition from other parties
Green Party	4	6.7%	+4 percentage points	Environmental focus, successful targeting of constituencies
Plaid Cymru	4	14.8% (Wales)	+4.9 percentage points (Wales)	Growing Welsh nationalism, effective local campaigning

Summary

The 2024 General Election revealed significant shifts in national voting behavior, with the Labour Party capitalizing on the decline of Conservative support to secure a large majority. The election also saw the resurgence of the Liberal Democrats, the rise of smaller parties like Reform UK and the Greens, and a complex regional picture in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. These patterns were influenced by demographic changes, boundary adjustments, and varying levels of voter turnout, highlighting the dynamic nature of electoral politics in the UK.

The 2019 UK General Election

The 2019 UK General Election, held on December 12th, was a pivotal event that reshaped the political landscape, leading to a significant Conservative victory under Prime Minister Boris Johnson. This election was called early following the passing of the Early Parliamentary Election Act 2019 and was conducted under the First Past the Post (FPTP) electoral system. The results and voting behavior patterns in this election reflect key trends and shifts in UK politics.

National Voting-Behavior Patterns

Conservative Party Success

• Large Majority Secured: The Conservative Party, led by Boris Johnson, won 365 seats, a net gain of 48 seats from 2017, with 43.6% of the vote. This was the largest Conservative majority since Margaret Thatcher's victory in 1987 and the highest vote share for any party since 1979.
• Brexit as a Central Issue: The Conservative campaign focused heavily on delivering Brexit, resonating with Leave voters across England and Wales. The slogan "Get Brexit Done" was central to their campaign, and it effectively mobilized voters who were frustrated with the delays and uncertainties surrounding Brexit.
• Strategic Gains: The Conservatives made significant gains in Leave-voting areas and Labour strongholds in the North of England and the Midlands, regions that had previously voted Labour but were swayed by the promise of resolving the Brexit impasse.

Labour Party Decline

• Significant Losses: The Labour Party, led by Jeremy Corbyn, suffered a major defeat, winning only 203 seats, a net loss of 60 seats from 2017, with 32.1% of the vote. This was Labour's worst performance since 1935, reflecting a deep disillusionment among traditional Labour supporters.
• Brexit and Leadership Issues: Labour's ambiguous stance on Brexit and Corbyn's leadership were major factors in their poor performance. The party's failure to clearly articulate a position on Brexit and internal divisions over leadership and policy alienated key voter groups, particularly in the North of England and Midlands.
• Regional Variations: Labour's losses were concentrated in Leave-voting areas where their position on Brexit was seen as contradictory or insufficiently clear. The party also struggled to retain support in its traditional heartlands, where voters were swayed by the Conservatives' decisive Brexit stance.

Liberal Democrat Performance

• Modest Gains: The Liberal Democrats, led by Jo Swinson, won 11 seats with 11.5% of the vote, a net gain of one seat. Their campaign focused on a second EU referendum and reversing Brexit, which resonated with Remain voters.
• Challenges in Execution: Despite their efforts, the Liberal Democrats failed to make significant headway against the two main parties. Their campaign was hampered by tactical voting dynamics and a lack of clear differentiation from the main parties on other key issues.

Scottish National Party (SNP) Performance

• Major Success in Scotland: The SNP, led by Nicola Sturgeon, won 48 seats, a net gain of 13 seats, with 3.9% of the vote. This was the SNP's best performance to date and reflected a strong push for Scottish independence.

Green Party Performance

• Incremental Gains: The Green Party won one seat in Brighton Pavilion, led by Caroline Lucas, with 2.7% of the vote. Their performance reflected ongoing interest in environmental issues but was limited by the dominance of the two main parties and the FPTP electoral system.

Northern Ireland Results

• Complex Dynamics: In Northern Ireland, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) won 8 seats, the Sinn Féin won 7 seats, and the Alliance Party increased its representation with one seat. The results highlighted ongoing political divisions and the importance of local issues.

Voter Turnout and Demographic Impact

High Turnout

• Overall Turnout: Turnout in the 2019 General Election was 67.3%, a significant increase from previous elections. This high turnout reflected heightened political engagement and the salience of Brexit in the electoral campaign.
• Demographic Influences: Increased turnout was observed among young voters and ethnic minorities, who were mobilized by the stakes of Brexit and the contrasting positions of the major parties. The Conservatives' Brexit focus attracted older and more conservative voters, while Labour's mixed messaging and internal issues led to reduced engagement among traditional supporters.

Impact of Brexit

• Polarization: Brexit played a central role in shaping voter behaviour, leading to a polarized electorate. The Conservative Party's focus on delivering Brexit resonated with Leave voters, while Labour's indecisiveness on the issue contributed to their losses. The Liberal Democrats' strong pro-Remain stance had limited impact in a polarized environment dominated by Brexit.

Regional and Demographic Changes

• Regional Shifts: The election results highlighted significant regional variations, with the Conservatives making gains in Labour's traditional strongholds and Labour struggling to retain support in Brexit-leaning areas. The SNP's success in Scotland and the rise of **Brexit-**focused parties in Northern Ireland further underscored the diverse and shifting political landscape.

National Voting-Behaviour Patterns in the 2019 General Election

Party	Seats Won	Vote Share	Change from 2017	Key Factors
Conservative Party	365	43.6%	+48 seats	Strong Brexit focus, gains in Labour strongholds, effective campaign
Labour Party	203	32.1%	-60 seats	Ambiguous Brexit stance, leadership issues, losses in Leave areas
Liberal Democrats	11	11.5%	+1 seat	Pro-Remain focus, tactical voting challenges
SNP	48	3.9%	+13 seats	Opposition to Brexit, push for Scottish independence
Green Party	1	2.7%	No change	Environmental focus, limited by FPTP
DUP	8	N/A	No change	Continued support in Northern Ireland
Sinn Féin	7	N/A	No change	Continued support in Northern Ireland

Summary

The 2019 General Election was a decisive moment in UK politics, characterized by a clear Conservative victory driven by their Brexit-focused campaign. Labour's decline reflected internal party challenges and Brexit-related issues. The Liberal Democrats made only modest gains, while the SNP saw significant success in Scotland. The election highlighted regional shifts, increased voter turnout, and the central role of Brexit in shaping voter behavior and party fortunes.