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Expected Frequency Simplified Revision Notes

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Expected Frequency

Explanation

Expected frequency is a concept in probability and statistics that predicts how often an event should occur based on theoretical probabilities. It is calculated using the formula:

Expected Frequency=Probability of Event×Total Number of Trials\text{Expected Frequency} = \text{Probability of Event} \times \text{Total Number of Trials}

Steps to Calculate Expected Frequency

  1. Determine the Probability of the Event: Identify the likelihood of the event happening. This could be given as a fraction, decimal, or percentage.

  2. Identify the Total Number of Trials: Determine how many times the experiment or observation will be conducted.

  3. Apply the Formula: Multiply the probability of the event by the total number of trials to find the expected frequency.

Expected frequency is commonly used in hypothesis testing, such as in the chi-squared test, and helps compare actual experimental results with theoretical predictions.


Worked Examples

infoNote

Example 1: Tossing a Fair Coin

Problem: A coin is tossed 100 times.

How many times would you expect it to land on heads?


Solution:

  • Step 1: Probability of heads = 0.5 (since the coin is fair).
  • Step 2: Total number of trials = 100.
  • Step 3: Expected frequency = 0.5 Ă— 100 = 50

Answer: The expected frequency of getting heads is 50.


infoNote

Example 2: Rolling a Die

Problem: A six-sided die is rolled 120 times.

How many times would you expect to roll a 4?


Solution:

  • Step 1: Probability of rolling a 4 = 1/6
  • Step 2: Total number of trials = 120.
  • Step 3: Expected frequency = 1/6 Ă— 120 = 20

Answer: The expected frequency of rolling a 4 is 20.


infoNote

Example 3: Real-World Application (Traffic Lights)

Problem: In a survey, it's found that 30% of vehicles at an intersection run a red light. If 500 vehicles pass through the intersection, how many would you expect to run a red light?


Solution:

  • Step 1: Probability of running a red light = 0.3.
  • Step 2: Total number of trials = 500.
  • Step 3: Expected frequency = 0.3 Ă— 500 = 150

Answer: The expected frequency of vehicles running a red light is 150.


Summary

  • Expected Frequency Formula:
Expected Frequency=Probability of Event×Total Number of Trials\text{Expected Frequency} = \text{Probability of Event} \times \text{Total Number of Trials}
  • Helps compare observed data with theoretical probabilities.
  • Applies to various contexts, such as dice rolls, coin tosses, and real-world surveys.
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